Bank Credit Defaults Fall, But Market Risk Grows
BRIARCLIFF MANOR, NY / ACCESS Newswire / December 1, 2025 / Whalen Global Advisors LLC (WGA) has published the latest edition of The IRA Bank Book for Q4 2025 [ISBN 978-0-692-09756-4]. Entitled “Defaults Fall, Market Risk Grows,” the report details how indicators of consumer credit risk are falling even as risk to financial markets from institutional and commercial credit, crypto tokens and market exposures grow.
“The flow of bank loans supporting private equity, credit strategies and crypto offerings continued to grow in Q3 2025, although the rate of increase is naturally slowed as the size of the bubble in nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) expanded,” notes WGA Chairman Christopher Whalen. “As in Q2 2025, the largest bank portfolio increases reported by the FDIC are in loans to non-depository financial institutions and broker-dealer loans to purchase or carry securities, including margin loans. Many large dealers are affiliates of big banks.”
The WGA report notes that the market performance for the banks in the WGA Bank Top 50 continues to be strong despite the selloff in early November. SoFi Technology (SOF) leads the pack up 85% YTD as of the end of November. Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup (C) continue to lead the larger group. Lending Club (LC) was #2 behind SOFI at the end of November, the report notes. The top ten bank stocks in the WGA Bank Top 50 as of November 28, 2025, are shown below:
|
Symbol |
200-DMA (Chg %) |
Market Cap ($B) |
Price/Book |
|
SOFI |
50.62% |
35.839 |
4.08 |
|
LC |
34.20% |
2.087 |
1.43 |
|
CMA |
23.92% |
10.272 |
1.46 |
|
GS |
22.33% |
250.06 |
2.37 |
|
MS |
21.97% |
270.834 |
2.69 |
|
C |
21.12% |
190.717 |
0.96 |
|
SYF |
19.10% |
28.782 |
1.76 |
|
AXP |
18.82% |
254.185 |
7.76 |
|
TD |
18.51% |
144.782 |
1.17 |
|
BKU |
18.22% |
3.25 |
1.07 |
|
11/28/2025 |
“Margin credit in the US reached another new peak in Q3 2025,” Whalen notes. “While rising margin debt can reflect investor confidence, we see it as a warning sign of excess speculation, potentially increasing market risk for depositories. The selloff in AI stocks and crypto tokens in the first two months of the fourth quarter may result in credit losses to banks and dealers.”
Copies of The IRA Bank Book for Q4 2025 report are available to subscribers to the Premium Service of The Institutional Risk Analyst. Stand alone copies of the WGA report are also available for purchase in our online store. Media wishing to receive a courtesy copy of the report please email us: info@rcwhalen.com
.
About Whalen Global Advisors LLC
Whalen Global Advisors LLC is a New York consulting, risk advisory and publishing company that focuses on financial institutions and global markets. WGA publishes The Institutional Risk Analyst (ISSN 2692-1812), the WGA Bank Top 50 Banks, and commentary on the capital markets, industry reports and company profiles. For additional information, please contact us at: info@rcwhalen.com.
Contact Information
Ali Rickards Embers
Media
ajrickards@gmail.com
203-219-7549
SOURCE: Whalen Global Advisors LLC
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